Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Syllabus For Prof Amogh Test

The Test is scheduled for 23rd Feb '12

Securitization of Debt
Venture Capital
Credit Cards

# All the notes on the blog are for general reading # For test everything has been mailed

*^ Best of Luck



Prof Amogh Notes # 5


Morgan Stanley's Ruchir Sharma in ET today


Ruchir Sharma's article titled 'Green'back': The Dollar is on a Comeback Trail', appeared in The Economic Times today. Ruchir is the Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
 
In this article, Ruchir details on why he thinks that following a decade of under performance, the US currency appears to be regaining ground against currencies of nations with large current account deficits and high rates of inflation.
 
Click on the link below to read the article.
 
Attachment:
Greenback_The _Dollar_is_on_a_Comeback_Trail.pdf <http://linkback.morganstanley.com/web/sendlink/webapp/BMServlet?file=h7rj6e68-3o9q-g000-9de8-002655210000&store=0&d=TAAwAGg3cmo2ZTY4LTNvOXEtZzAwMC05ZGU4LTAwMjY1NTIxMDAwMA%3D%3D&user=bajz83xiyo7b-1724&__gda__=1452234310_4bb9ad014ed94a54b1a288c273c40e55>

Prof Amogh Notes #4


ICRA research article : 'Stick to SIP in a falling market to maximize gains'


ICRA article: 'Stick to SIP in a falling market to maximize gains' - This is an excellent article on why investors should invest and continue their SIP's in a bad market. The key highlights of the article is the analysis of past returns generated by Lumpsum and SIP investments under different time periods and the kind of recovery the investors have had under the strategy.
 
 A)     ICRA did an analysis of last two decades of BSE Sensex performance and find  that systematic investments in bad period actually benefits the investor.
 B)      The study shows that the best period to benefit from SIP's is a downside or a range bound market
 C)      In a 'V' shaped recovery like the period from Feb-2000 to Jan-2004 or Jan-2008 to Nov-2011, wherein markets fell and then recovered back, SIP gave better returns than lumpsum investments
 D)     In a 'Range bound' market like the period from June-1994 to Sept-1999, also SIP provided better returns by benefitting from both the up and down trend in market
 E)      However, staying invested in difficult times and continuing the systematic investments requires patience and discipline which has historically paid off investors in equity markets
 F)      SIP's however, tend to underperform Lunpsum investments in bull markets like Feb-2003 to Jan-2008 or in case of periods like Jan-1991 to Mar-1993 or Feb-2003 to Oct-2008 where the markets had a bull run and then a correction
 G)     However, one should note that it is very difficult to time the market hence, very difficult to gain from it
 H)     In current scenario it is likely that the investor may see a range bound market for some time or a slow uptrending market which is ideal for SIP investments due to its benefits of cost-averaging
 I)        Since the India story still seems to be intact markets may revive at a later stage





Stick to SIPs in a falling market to maximise gains
Fear has made investors cautious; greed now looks out of sight as India’s equity market is down for more
than a year. In addition, the volatile market has made investors puzzled about the future direction. There
is no doubt that long term mutual fund investments are still giving better returns whereas investors who
entered at higher levels are feeling uneasy looking at the market volatility. Here, if an investor is thinking
to stop their systematic investment plan commonly known as SIP, he must reconsider his decision. He
could be losing on two fronts: First, if market goes up he loses the opportunity to convert his negative
returns into positive. Secondly, if market drops further, he loses the opportunity of higher units. In a falling
market scenario, most investors lose their patience or become anxious about their eroding portfolio value.
Also some negative news in the Indian or global market forces certain proportion of investors to cancel
their SIPs.
This type of behavior is a potential source of damage and goes against the systematic way of investment to
create wealth. To make the financial planning more difficult, most investors restart SIP when market
moves up. In this case, investor losses its best investing period and finds it difficult to accumulate needed
corpus to achieve their financial goals. Investing in bad times could be a boon when market goes up.
Trend Analysis
To give a better understanding of SIP, we at ICRA Online took different time periods (scenario) of SENSEX
over the last two decades to show that systematic investment in bad period actually benefits the investor.
We have also compared with lump sum investment to highlight who is better-off in a particular scenario.
The study shows that the best period to reap maximum benefit through SIP is a downside market or range
bound market. In a V-shaped recovery (from Feb-2000 to Jan-2004 and Jan-2008 to Nov-2011) where
market initially falls and then recovers, SIP investment help to gain from this movement. In a range bound
market (from June-1994 to Sept-1999) also it gives a better result as it benefits from both the up-anddown
cycle trend. Hence, it would not ne prudent if the SIP is stopped in a falling market. We can also
understand that both these scenario is the most difficult ones to follow and requires patience to earn
higher returns in the equity market. This is where disciplined investment comes similar to what investors
do in case of life insurance and other fixed or risk-free debt investments. However, in case of bull market
(Feb-2003 to Jan-2008) or when bull-run is followed by a correction (Jan-1991 to March-1993 and Feb-
2003 to Oct-2008) SIP scores lower than lump sum investment. But practically timing the market is difficult
for many investors. Investor should also note here that as SIP is done on a continuous basis, the real
returns calculated will be higher than absolute returns shown in the table. So, in some cases, like from Sep-
2009 to Nov-2011, lump sum returns are better than SIP but actually it could be the opposite


Now as the longest bull-run (5 years) is the story of the past, it is likely that the investor may see a range
bound market for some time or slow/crawling upward market. SIP method is better off in this scenario as
it gives the advantage of cost-averaging. In the difficult economic scenario we could see some bad quarters
but then interest rates will start going down, and markets will revive as the Indian growth story is still
intact.
From financial planning perspective also it is better to think about financial goals rather than short term
unrealized losses. In an investment cycle, investors will see both bright and gloomy days. So, it is important
to continue your investment to get maximum benefit in the longer run. However, it is difficult to track
every asset class individually and beat the market in all instances. Hence, it is important to have a financial
planner in place who will guide the investor in every step of their life to achieve their financial goals.
Reproduced from www.mutualfundsindia.com

Prof Amogh Notes #3


Market Musings..The Year 2012 for the Markets


Annus horribilis (year of horror) - is what most of us in financial markets would want to term year 2011. A year that started with lots of hopes eventually turned out to be one of the most turbulent periods for financial markets across the globe. So much so, that one was compelled to draw parallels to periods ranging from the '90s to the very recent 2008 financial crises.
  
 Worst part was India - which never originated the crises, actually bore the maximum brunt, with an ailing currency as also deteriorating growth prospects. The INR depreciated -15.87% in 2011, while the Sensex eroded in value by -24.64%. Also, the combined fiscal deficit of the state and center is likely to be around 10% for FY 12. None of these frankly were so clearly envisaged at the beginning of the year.
  
 So what really went wrong ?
  
 If 2008 crises was US led, then time the lead role was played by the Euro zone. Money flocks to safe haven in times of turbulence and hence it was no surprise to see the dollar reign supremacy in 2011 with a gain of 1.58% in the dollar index (most currencies depreciated in this period).The US 10yr treasury also returned around 17%. It was therefore natural to see INR depreciate in line with other currencies. This continued happen at a time when crude prices also remained reasonably steady. Infact, brent crude (which is relevant for India) rose almost 15% in CY 11. India is a net importer of crude and the depreciating rupee only aggravated the oil bill, leading to a widening of the Current account deficit (CAD). To add fuel to the fire, India's gold imports also remained robust. Further, for most part of the year inflation remained sticky (WPI averaged at around 9.59%) which led to monetary tightening by the RBI (interest rates hike by 225 bps in CY '11). The yield curve bear flattened in response to rate hike as well as tight liquidity conditions
  
 Have things changed since then?
  
 Not entirely - but early signs of hope do linger. Globally, the Euro does not seem to break off the marriage in a hurry, though differences still exist. The recent measure by ECB to extend 3yr loans to banks is some indication towards that. There is less bad news from the US, indicating more stable conditions there. Closer home, the recent domestic macro economic data do have a story to tell. The IIP has shown a negative growth of 5% over the last year. Food inflation has cooled off from peak levels, as also the WPI. Early signs of slowdown in consumption also have been visible alongside some stalling in the investment cycle.
  
 What to expect in 2012?
  
 While the idea is not to do a crystal ball gazing or put down a list of predictions to prove our astrology skills, we are trying to make a knowledgeable conjecture of what we feel could be in store for 2012
 - Policy rates to start easing from Q1 - FY 13 as the stance changes from "growth focus" to "inflation focus". CRR cut may be effected earlier to allow the system to breathe easy on liquidity. Recall that the system has been in the deficit mode for over 5 quarters now.
 - Inflation to ease off in the 1st half due to base effect and softening impact of primary articles. 2nd half could trend higher, albeit average for the year could still be lower
 - The "China effect" which saw rally in commodities could temper off if talks of China slowdown were actually to materialize
 - Gold to continue to display resilience in a market where uncertainties continue to exist. Headwinds may be faced from stronger dollar, but trend for 2012 remains higher.
 - Currency to continue to remain under pressure in near term, range bound for most part of the year
 - Some stocks have corrected more than the broader indices. Markets could remain range bound with attempts to seek valuation based buying this year. Remember current levels of index offer PE multiples at around the similar levels last seen in FY09.
 - Fixed income to offer opportunities across the yield spectrum. Short duration funds to be beneficiaries of the anticipated steepening in the yield curve (currently flat/inverted)
 - 10yr Gsec yield to hover in the band of 7.75% t0 8.25%. Intermittently, either end of bands could be breached in response to ad hoc news. OMOs by RBI and slow down in credit disbursements to anchor any sharp rise in yields
 - Equity markets to move sideways before some stimulus (read rate cuts) could change sentiment. Expect a trading range of 14500 - 18000 for the Sensex

Sunday, 19 February 2012

Circulars 19 Feb '12

Prof Amogh will be taking test on 23rd Feb'12

.......................................................................

Law test is scheduled for 3rd March 2012
.......................................................................

Class List with the Email address

Please check your email ids and if there is a correction or if somebody's email id is missing please drop a mail on shobhitkrmodi@gmail.com

These ids are required for regular updates on the notes which will be mailed to everyone


Class List of Baf Jai hind
Names Surname  Email Id
Ritika Bafna
Yogesh Devnani rbhorawat12@yahoo.com
Rahul Borawat
Mishika Chagwani mishikachangawani@gmail.com
Ranjita Chatterjee rchatterjee138@gmail.com
Chirag Chopra
Henali Chouhan
Dheeraj Daryanani dheeraj.daryanani@gmail.com
Pratik Doshi pratik_doshi99@yahoo.com
Animesh Gaggar animeshgaggar13@live.in
Pavitra Iyer iyerpavithra01@gmail.com
Nishita Jain
Parth Jain
Pooja Jain jainpooja899@gmail.com
Karishma  Jajoo karishma.jajoo@gmail.com
Darshana Jotwani deejay3scorpio@gmail.com
Aayush Kala
Disha Kalwani disha_kalwani@hotmail.com
Prerna Kankaria prerna_44@hotmail.com
Sakina Kapadia
Rishabh Kapoor rishabh_92@hotmail.com
Tanvi Karvat princesstanvi@hotmail.com
Yash Khetan
Annev Kothari
Vibha Kothari kothari.vibha@gmail.com
Ashutosh Merchant ashutoshmerchant@gmail.com
Shobhit Modi shobhitkrmodi@gmail.com
Riken Mody mody_riken@hotmail.com
Nirali Parekh nirali_scorpian@yahoo.co.in
Brinda Parikh brindaparikh@ymail.com
Janavi Parikh janavi_parikh@hotmail.com
Raveena Patel
Yishaan Patel yishaanp@hotmail.com
Madhuram Pugalia madhuram92@gmail.com
Mayuri Punamiya mayurpunamiya@ymail.com
Anushka Rajani anushkarajani@hotmail.com
Vinit Sadani
Kunal Sakaria
Aastha Samdani aastha.samdhani@gmail.com
Chintan Sanghavi chintan.40@gmail.com
Amoli Sanghvi
Sweety Sarkar sweetysarkar_92@hotmail.com
Nisha Seth nishaseth1312@gmail.com
Aakash Shah aakashshah2992@yahoo.com
Drashti Shah
Karishma  Shah
Prashant Shilpkar shilpkarprashant@yahoo.in
Kushal Sindhwani kushalsindhwani@gmail.com
Aakriti Singh aakriti728@gmail.com
Nikunj Soningra nikunj.thedevil@yahoo.com
Shankar Srinivasan shankar_55@ymail.com
Monisha Thakkar
Payal Thakur payalthakur99@gmail.com
Farah Titina


Saturday, 18 February 2012

Prof Amogh Notes # 2


Annus horribilis (year of horror) – is what most of us in financial markets would want to term year 2011. A year that started with lots of hopes eventually turned out to be one of the most turbulent periods for financial markets across the globe. So much so, that one was compelled to draw parallels to periods ranging from the ‘90s to the very recent 2008 financial crises.

Worst part was India – which never originated the crises, actually bore the maximum brunt, with an ailing currency as also deteriorating growth prospects. The INR depreciated -15.87% in 2011, while the Sensex eroded in value by -24.64%. Also, the combined fiscal deficit of the state and center is likely to be around 10% for FY 12. None of these frankly were so clearly envisaged at the beginning of the year.

So what really went wrong ?

If 2008 crises was US led, then time the lead role was played by the Euro zone. Money flocks to safe haven in times of turbulence and hence it was no surprise to see the dollar reign supremacy in 2011 with a gain of 1.58% in the dollar index (most currencies depreciated in this period).The US 10yr treasury also returned around 17%. It was therefore natural to see INR depreciate in line with other currencies. This continued happen at a time when crude prices also remained reasonably steady. Infact, brent crude (which is relevant for India) rose almost 15% in CY 11. India is a net importer of crude and the depreciating rupee only aggravated the oil bill, leading to a widening of the Current account deficit (CAD). To add fuel to the fire, India’s gold imports also remained robust. Further, for most part of the year inflation remained sticky (WPI averaged at around 9.59%) which led to monetary tightening by the RBI (interest rates hike by 225 bps in CY ’11). The yield curve bear flattened in response to rate hike as well as tight liquidity conditions

Have things changed since then?

Not entirely – but early signs of hope do linger. Globally, the Euro does not seem to break off the marriage in a hurry, though differences still exist. The recent measure by ECB to extend 3yr loans to banks is some indication towards that. There is less bad news from the US, indicating more stable conditions there. Closer home, the recent domestic macro economic data do have a story to tell. The IIP has shown a negative growth of 5% over the last year. Food inflation has cooled off from peak levels, as also the WPI. Early signs of slowdown in consumption also have been visible alongside some stalling in the investment cycle.

What to expect in 2012?

While the idea is not to do a crystal ball gazing or put down a list of predictions to prove our astrology skills, we are trying to make a knowledgeable conjecture of what we feel could be in store for 2012
- Policy rates to start easing from Q1 – FY 13 as the stance changes from “growth focus” to “inflation focus”. CRR cut may be effected earlier to allow the system to breathe easy on liquidity. Recall that the system has been in the deficit mode for over 5 quarters now.
- Inflation to ease off in the 1st half due to base effect and softening impact of primary articles. 2nd half could trend higher, albeit average for the year could still be lower
- The “China effect” which saw rally in commodities could temper off if talks of China slowdown were actually to materialize
- Gold to continue to display resilience in a market where uncertainties continue to exist. Headwinds may be faced from stronger dollar, but trend for 2012 remains higher.
- Currency to continue to remain under pressure in near term, range bound for most part of the year
- Some stocks have corrected more than the broader indices. Markets could remain range bound with attempts to seek valuation based buying this year. Remember current levels of index offer PE multiples at around the similar levels last seen in FY09.
- Fixed income to offer opportunities across the yield spectrum. Short duration funds to be beneficiaries of the anticipated steepening in the yield curve (currently flat/inverted)
- 10yr Gsec yield to hover in the band of 7.75% t0 8.25%. Intermittently, either end of bands could be breached in response to ad hoc news. OMOs by RBI and slow down in credit disbursements to anchor any sharp rise in yields
- Equity markets to move sideways before some stimulus (read rate cuts) could change sentiment. Expect a trading range of 14500 – 18000 for the Sensex




Moody's reaffirms India's sovereign rating; cautions growth
TO: More recipients
CC: recipientsYou More
BCC: 1 recipientsYou
FROM:
·         Amogh Gothoskar
BCC:
·         brindaparikh@ymail.com
Thursday, 22 December 2011 7:13 PM
Message Body
In what comes as a big boost to the waning confidence in the Indian economy, credit rating agency Moody's has reaffirmed India's sovereign rating at BAA3. However, it has said that India's growth downturn is expected to persist for two quarters.
But, Moody’s has said that if the fiscal deficit situation worsens, it may lead to a change in the credit ratings, reports CNBC-TV18’s Aakansha Sethi.
The important thing is that they have maintained India’s sovereign rating at BAA3 at a time when S&P downgraded the US from AAA to AA+ and its outlook from stable to negative in August











RBI paused after 13 rate hikes; indicated a reversal of cycle (rate cut) going forward on risk to growth


RBI finally hit the pause button, as expected, after hiking rate for 13 times since early 2010. RBI was also dovish as it mentioned about increasing downside risk to growth with inflation remaining on projected path. RBI’s growth forecast for FY12 was changed to 7.6% with significant downward risk. Inflation projection remained at 7% by March end. Most importantly, RBI indicated that, going forward, it might reverse the monetary-tightening cycle due to the risks to growth. RBI mentioned that it will intervene in forex market if warranted and conduct further OMOs as and when needed.

Pause in Policy Rates:
·        RBI kept Repo rate unchanged at 8.50%. As a result, Reverse Repo and MSF rate remained at 7.50% and 9.50% respectively. CRR remains at 6%.

Reasons given by RBI for pause:
·        The global economic outlook has worsened significantly.
·        In India, the growth momentum is clearly moderating due to the uncertain global environment, the cumulative impact of past monetary policy tightening and domestic policy uncertainties. The downside risks to the RBI’s growth projection have increased significantly.
·        Inflation remains above RBI’s comfort level but it is moderating with decline in food inflation. Inflation pressures are expected to abate on moderation in aggregate demand and lower food inflation despite high crude oil prices and rupee depreciation. The inflation projection for March 2012 is retained at 7%.

RBI hinted at reversal of tightening cycle going forward:
·        With inflation remaining on its projected trajectory and downside risks to growth significantly increasing, RBI feels further rate hikes might not be warranted. Going forward, RBI announced that the monetary policy actions are likely to reverse the cycle, responding to the risks to growth.
·        But risks from Inflation and Rupee depreciation remain. The timing and magnitude of future rate actions will depend on how these factors shape up in the months ahead.

Bottomline
·        RBI action was in line with expectation as it acknowledged significant risk to growth and softening in Inflation.
·        Most importantly, RBI explicitly mentioned that tightening cycle is over and RBI will reverse cycle (cut rate) if risk to growth increases.
·        RBI did not cut CRR or announce any OMO calendar as expected by market. RBI felt that liquidity is adequate currently. But RBI said that it will conduct further OMOs as and when needed.
·        RBI also said that it is closely monitoring the external sector and will intervene to support rupee.
·        Overall, it was dovish policy where growth was given more importance than inflation. Interest rate has peaked. Inflation will start moderating and that will provide room for RBI to cut rate.


Quick update on fall in gold prices
Last trading session has been very bad for global markets, including commodities. The EUR breached the 1.3 mark v/s the dollar, a level not seen in past 11 months. Clearly markets are indicating that the Euro zone crises is still not out of the way. The CRB commodity index was down 3%, gold is now trading at $1575 – sign of risk off sentiment. The key reason for the same is the $ rally which has got all commodities reeling under pressure, including gold….            

The good part for Indian investors is that in Rupee terms, gold is still holding on as depreciating rupee boosts the value of gold. Hence we haven’t seen as much carnage in gold when priced in INR. Last 1 month gold has fallen nearly 12% in $ terms, but less than 2% in INR terms

The outlook for gold in $ terms continues to be on the downward side as it technically poised for some more selling. This is the 1st time since Jan 2009 gold has broken the 200 DMA (daily moving average). The attempt will be to pull up back to the 200 DMA levels, but near term momentum remains weak. However, the view is that INR would continue to remain under pressure, so to that extent the rupee value of gold is not likely to be as impacted despite the steep $ price correction in gold (as I write INR has breached the 54 mark !!!!).Overall, near term remains cautious, but given the spectacular performance of gold as an asset class, some period of correction / consolidation was warranted –and this is one such phase we are witnessing

Good days for gold are not over – just taken a breather.

Sunday, 12 February 2012

Circulars 11 Feb '12

There will not be any Factory Project for Prof Aazmeen in Law
..............................................
Prof Amogh will be taking Test on 23rd Feb '12 for Com II
..............................................

Thursday, 9 February 2012

Amogh Sir Notes # 1


Stick to SIPs in a falling market to maximise gains
Fear has made investors cautious; greed now looks out of sight as India’s equity market is down for more
than a year. In addition, the volatile market has made investors puzzled about the future direction. There
is no doubt that long term mutual fund investments are still giving better returns whereas investors who
entered at higher levels are feeling uneasy looking at the market volatility. Here, if an investor is thinking
to stop their systematic investment plan commonly known as SIP, he must reconsider his decision. He
could be losing on two fronts: First, if market goes up he loses the opportunity to convert his negative
returns into positive. Secondly, if market drops further, he loses the opportunity of higher units. In a falling
market scenario, most investors lose their patience or become anxious about their eroding portfolio value.
Also some negative news in the Indian or global market forces certain proportion of investors to cancel
their SIPs.
This type of behavior is a potential source of damage and goes against the systematic way of investment to
create wealth. To make the financial planning more difficult, most investors restart SIP when market
moves up. In this case, investor losses its best investing period and finds it difficult to accumulate needed
corpus to achieve their financial goals. Investing in bad times could be a boon when market goes up.
Trend Analysis
To give a better understanding of SIP, we at ICRA Online took different time periods (scenario) of SENSEX
over the last two decades to show that systematic investment in bad period actually benefits the investor.
We have also compared with lump sum investment to highlight who is better-off in a particular scenario.
The study shows that the best period to reap maximum benefit through SIP is a downside market or range
bound market. In a V-shaped recovery (from Feb-2000 to Jan-2004 and Jan-2008 to Nov-2011) where
market initially falls and then recovers, SIP investment help to gain from this movement. In a range bound
market (from June-1994 to Sept-1999) also it gives a better result as it benefits from both the up-anddown
cycle trend. Hence, it would not ne prudent if the SIP is stopped in a falling market. We can also
understand that both these scenario is the most difficult ones to follow and requires patience to earn
higher returns in the equity market. This is where disciplined investment comes similar to what investors
do in case of life insurance and other fixed or risk-free debt investments. However, in case of bull market
(Feb-2003 to Jan-2008) or when bull-run is followed by a correction (Jan-1991 to March-1993 and Feb-
2003 to Oct-2008) SIP scores lower than lump sum investment. But practically timing the market is difficult
for many investors. Investor should also note here that as SIP is done on a continuous basis, the real
returns calculated will be higher than absolute returns shown in the table. So, in some cases, like from Sep-
2009 to Nov-2011, lump sum returns are better than SIP but actually it could be the opposite


Now as the longest bull-run (5 years) is the story of the past, it is likely that the investor may see a range
bound market for some time or slow/crawling upward market. SIP method is better off in this scenario as
it gives the advantage of cost-averaging. In the difficult economic scenario we could see some bad quarters
but then interest rates will start going down, and markets will revive as the Indian growth story is still
intact.
From financial planning perspective also it is better to think about financial goals rather than short term
unrealized losses. In an investment cycle, investors will see both bright and gloomy days. So, it is important
to continue your investment to get maximum benefit in the longer run. However, it is difficult to track
every asset class individually and beat the market in all instances. Hence, it is important to have a financial
planner in place who will guide the investor in every step of their life to achieve their financial goals.
Reproduced from www.mutualfundsindia.com

Circulars 9 Feb '12

QM Test on Monday 13th Feb '12
Syllabus - Transportation Problem
.............................................
Assignment Submission for Prof Sachin is scheduled on 13th Feb '12
Q 6 *Pg 196*
.........................................
Fa Test on Tuesday 14th Feb '12

Friday, 3 February 2012

Circular 3 Feb 2012

There will be no lectures of Prof Harbeer On 4th Feb 2012
..........................................................
Prof Suri will take an Internal  Test on 10th Feb 2012
..........................................................