Annus horribilis (year of
horror) – is what most of us in financial markets would want to term year 2011.
A year that started with lots of hopes eventually turned out to be one of the
most turbulent periods for financial markets across the globe. So much so, that
one was compelled to draw parallels to periods ranging from the ‘90s to the
very recent 2008 financial crises.
Worst part was India –
which never originated the crises, actually bore the maximum brunt, with an
ailing currency as also deteriorating growth prospects. The INR depreciated
-15.87% in 2011, while the Sensex eroded in value by -24.64%. Also, the
combined fiscal deficit of the state and center is likely to be around 10% for
FY 12. None of these frankly were so clearly envisaged at the beginning of the
year.
So what really went wrong ?
If 2008 crises was US led,
then time the lead role was played by the Euro zone. Money flocks to safe haven
in times of turbulence and hence it was no surprise to see the dollar reign
supremacy in 2011 with a gain of 1.58% in the dollar index (most currencies
depreciated in this period).The US 10yr treasury also returned around 17%. It
was therefore natural to see INR depreciate in line with other currencies. This
continued happen at a time when crude prices also remained reasonably steady.
Infact, brent crude (which is relevant for India) rose almost 15% in CY 11.
India is a net importer of crude and the depreciating rupee only aggravated the
oil bill, leading to a widening of the Current account deficit (CAD). To add fuel
to the fire, India’s gold imports also remained robust. Further, for most part
of the year inflation remained sticky (WPI averaged at around 9.59%) which led
to monetary tightening by the RBI (interest rates hike by 225 bps in CY ’11).
The yield curve bear flattened in response to rate hike as well as tight
liquidity conditions
Have things changed since
then?
Not entirely – but early
signs of hope do linger. Globally, the Euro does not seem to break off the
marriage in a hurry, though differences still exist. The recent measure by ECB
to extend 3yr loans to banks is some indication towards that. There is less bad
news from the US, indicating more stable conditions there. Closer home, the
recent domestic macro economic data do have a story to tell. The IIP has shown
a negative growth of 5% over the last year. Food inflation has cooled off from
peak levels, as also the WPI. Early signs of slowdown in consumption also have
been visible alongside some stalling in the investment cycle.
What to expect in 2012?
While the idea is not to do
a crystal ball gazing or put down a list of predictions to prove our astrology
skills, we are trying to make a knowledgeable conjecture of what we feel could
be in store for 2012
- Policy rates to start
easing from Q1 – FY 13 as the stance changes from “growth focus” to “inflation
focus”. CRR cut may be effected earlier to allow the system to breathe easy on
liquidity. Recall that the system has been in the deficit mode for over 5
quarters now.
- Inflation to ease off in the
1st half due to base effect and softening impact of primary
articles. 2nd half could trend higher, albeit average for the year
could still be lower
- The “China effect” which
saw rally in commodities could temper off if talks of China slowdown were actually
to materialize
- Gold to continue to
display resilience in a market where uncertainties continue to exist. Headwinds
may be faced from stronger dollar, but trend for 2012 remains higher.
- Currency to continue to
remain under pressure in near term, range bound for most part of the year
- Some stocks have
corrected more than the broader indices. Markets could remain range bound with
attempts to seek valuation based buying this year. Remember current levels of
index offer PE multiples at around the similar levels last seen in FY09.
- Fixed income to offer
opportunities across the yield spectrum. Short duration funds to be
beneficiaries of the anticipated steepening in the yield curve (currently
flat/inverted)
- 10yr Gsec yield to hover
in the band of 7.75% t0 8.25%. Intermittently, either end of bands could be
breached in response to ad hoc news. OMOs by RBI and slow down in credit
disbursements to anchor any sharp rise in yields
- Equity markets to move
sideways before some stimulus (read rate cuts) could change sentiment. Expect a
trading range of 14500 – 18000 for the Sensex
Moody's reaffirms India's sovereign rating;
cautions growth
TO: More recipients
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BCC: 1 recipientsYou
FROM:
BCC:
Thursday, 22 December 2011
7:13 PM
Message
Body
In what comes as a big
boost to the waning confidence in the Indian economy, credit rating agency
Moody's has reaffirmed India's sovereign rating at BAA3. However, it has said
that India's growth downturn is expected to persist for two quarters.
But, Moody’s has said that
if the fiscal deficit situation worsens, it may lead to a change in the credit
ratings, reports CNBC-TV18’s Aakansha Sethi.
The important thing is that
they have maintained India’s sovereign rating at BAA3 at a time when S&P
downgraded the US from AAA to AA+ and its outlook from stable to negative in
August
RBI paused after 13 rate hikes; indicated a reversal of
cycle (rate cut) going forward on risk to growth
RBI finally hit
the pause button, as expected, after hiking rate for 13 times since early 2010.
RBI was also dovish as it mentioned about increasing downside risk to growth
with inflation remaining on projected path. RBI’s growth forecast for FY12 was
changed to 7.6% with significant downward risk. Inflation projection remained
at 7% by March end. Most importantly, RBI indicated that, going forward, it
might reverse the monetary-tightening cycle due to the risks to growth. RBI
mentioned that it will intervene in forex market if warranted and conduct
further OMOs as and when needed.
Pause in Policy Rates:
· RBI kept
Repo rate unchanged at 8.50%. As a result, Reverse Repo and MSF rate remained
at 7.50% and 9.50% respectively. CRR remains at 6%.
Reasons given by RBI for pause:
· The
global economic outlook has worsened significantly.
· In India,
the growth momentum is clearly moderating due to the uncertain global
environment, the cumulative impact of past monetary policy tightening and
domestic policy uncertainties. The downside risks to the RBI’s growth
projection have increased significantly.
· Inflation
remains above RBI’s comfort level but it is moderating with decline in food
inflation. Inflation pressures are expected to abate on moderation in aggregate
demand and lower food inflation despite high crude oil prices and rupee
depreciation. The inflation projection for March 2012 is retained at 7%.
RBI hinted at reversal of tightening cycle going
forward:
· With
inflation remaining on its projected trajectory and downside risks to growth
significantly increasing, RBI feels further rate hikes might not be warranted.
Going forward, RBI announced that the monetary policy actions are likely to
reverse the cycle, responding to the risks to growth.
· But risks
from Inflation and Rupee depreciation remain. The timing and magnitude of
future rate actions will depend on how these factors shape up in the months
ahead.
Bottomline
·
RBI
action was in line with expectation as it acknowledged significant risk to
growth and softening in Inflation.
·
Most
importantly, RBI explicitly mentioned that tightening cycle is over and RBI
will reverse cycle (cut rate) if risk to growth increases.
·
RBI
did not cut CRR or announce any OMO calendar as expected by market. RBI felt
that liquidity is adequate currently. But RBI said that it will conduct further
OMOs as and when needed.
·
RBI
also said that it is closely monitoring the external sector and will intervene
to support rupee.
·
Overall,
it was dovish policy where growth was given more importance than inflation.
Interest rate has peaked. Inflation will start moderating and that will provide
room for RBI to cut rate.
Quick
update on fall in gold prices
Last trading session has been very bad for
global markets, including commodities. The EUR breached the 1.3 mark v/s the
dollar, a level not seen in past 11 months. Clearly markets are indicating that
the Euro zone crises is still not out of the way. The CRB commodity index was
down 3%, gold is now trading at $1575 – sign of risk off sentiment. The key
reason for the same is the $ rally which has got all commodities reeling under
pressure, including gold….
The good part for Indian investors is that in
Rupee terms, gold is still holding on as depreciating rupee boosts the value of
gold. Hence we haven’t seen as much carnage in gold when priced in INR. Last
1 month gold has fallen nearly 12% in $ terms, but less than 2% in INR terms
The outlook for gold in $ terms continues to be
on the downward side as it technically poised for some more selling. This is
the 1st time since Jan 2009 gold has broken the 200 DMA (daily
moving average). The attempt will be to pull up back to the 200 DMA levels, but
near term momentum remains weak. However, the view is that INR would continue
to remain under pressure, so to that extent the rupee value of gold is not
likely to be as impacted despite the steep $ price correction in gold (as I
write INR has breached the 54 mark !!!!).Overall, near term remains cautious,
but given the spectacular performance of gold as an asset class, some period of
correction / consolidation was warranted –and this is one such phase we are
witnessing
Good days for gold are not over – just taken a
breather.